Partial-Fraud
Skill vs luck
Partial-Fraud on Polymarket: 3 settled bets · won 67% (95% range 21%–94%) · profit −$2.2K. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned −10.9% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 22, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Partial-Fraud: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 22, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0x85e5669beee6b80d887493e724987dabc5f56056. Data CC BY 4.0.
Partial-Fraud: −$2.2K on 3 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 67% (95% range 21%–94%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 3 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Oct 6 – Oct 22
- −$2.2K
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 22 | BUY Clippers @ 98¢ | Kings vs. Clippers ↗ | $21K |
| Oct 22 | BUY Lakers @ 99¢ | Warriors vs. Lakers ↗ | $20K |
| Oct 22 | BUY Trail Blazers @ 98¢ | Suns vs. Trail Blazers ↗ | $2.9K |
All 3 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.
The bigger picture: Does copying Polymarket whales pay? · Do Polymarket whales make money?