Organic-Test
Skill vs luck
Organic-Test on Polymarket: 3 settled bets · won 33% (95% range 6%–79%) · profit −$1.5K. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned −8.2% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 18, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Organic-Test: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 18, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0x853c37a959a5791b849e3f3225c7f5963746bd03. Data CC BY 4.0.
Organic-Test: −$1.5K on 3 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 33% (95% range 6%–79%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 1 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Sep 3 – Sep 18
- −$1.2K
- Oct 3 – Oct 18
- −$218
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16 | SELL Yes @ 90¢ | Katie Zacharia out as Press Secretary by October 31? ↗ | $1.9K |
| Oct 1 | BUY Yes
@ 61¢
Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026? |
Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026? | $2.6K |
| Sep 15 | BUY Yes
@ 45¢
Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30? |
Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30? | $2.3K |
| Sep 11 | SELL Yes @ 30¢ | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? ↗ | $1.1K |
All 4 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.
The bigger picture: Does copying Polymarket whales pay? · Do Polymarket whales make money?