Visible-Stone
Skill vs luck
Visible-Stone on Polymarket: 24 settled bets · won 88% (95% range 69%–96%) · profit −$657. Skill vs luck: can't be told from luck. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned −10.4% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 27, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Visible-Stone: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 27, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0x81625f8a1d9458e28f12e8ea984b065e6d037435. Data CC BY 4.0.
Visible-Stone: −$657 on 24 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 88% (95% range 69%–96%). Skill or luck: indistinguishable from luck.
Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 21 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Sep 6 – Sep 23
- −$998
- Oct 10 – Oct 27
- +$341
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 27 | BUY Celtics @ 98¢ | Bulls vs. Celtics ↗ | $1.8K |
| Oct 26 | BUY No
@ 98¢
Will CA Central Córdoba win on 2026-10-25? |
Will CA Central Córdoba win on 2026-10-25? | $1.6K |
| Oct 25 | BUY Yes
@ 98¢
Will AC Milan win on 2026-10-25? |
Will AC Milan win on 2026-10-25? | $1.5K |
| Oct 25 | BUY Bengals @ 98¢ | Bengals vs. Ravens ↗ | $1.5K |
| Oct 25 | SELL No
@ 99.7¢
Will Estoril Praia win on 2026-10-25? |
Will Estoril Praia win on 2026-10-25? | $1.4K |
| Oct 25 | BUY Suns @ 99¢ | Warriors vs. Suns ↗ | $1.3K |
| Oct 25 | BUY Yes
@ 98¢
Will Wellington Phoenix FC win on 2026-10-24? |
Will Wellington Phoenix FC win on 2026-10-24? | $1.3K |
| Oct 24 | BUY No
@ 99¢
Will Cúcuta Deportivo FC win on 2026-10-24? |
Will Cúcuta Deportivo FC win on 2026-10-24? | $1.2K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.
The bigger picture: Does copying Polymarket whales pay? · Do Polymarket whales make money?