Unconscious-Optimisation
Skill vs luck
Unconscious-Optimisation on Polymarket: 3 settled bets · won 33% (95% range 6%–79%) · profit −$2.6K. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned −11.2% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 24, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Unconscious-Optimisation: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0x80005fae4b4f56b16ec5d245e396a8af8dd73a21. Data CC BY 4.0.
Unconscious-Optimisation: −$2.6K on 3 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 33% (95% range 6%–79%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 3 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Oct 7 – Oct 24
- −$2.6K
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 22 | BUY Pelicans @ 36¢ | Pelicans vs. Jazz ↗ | $1.8K |
| Oct 22 | BUY Trail Blazers @ 73¢ | Trail Blazers vs. Kings ↗ | $3.7K |
| Oct 22 | BUY Hornets
@ 42¢
Hawks vs. Hornets |
Hawks vs. Hornets | $2.1K |
All 3 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.
The bigger picture: Does copying Polymarket whales pay? · Do Polymarket whales make money?