Swift-Estuary-Pillar
Skill vs luck
Swift-Estuary-Pillar on Polymarket: 4 settled bets · won 75% (95% range 30%–95%) · profit +$6.7K. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned −11.1% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 28, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Swift-Estuary-Pillar: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 28, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0x7f84b263a2f8b32e51455c6d005cac7f503db057. Data CC BY 4.0.
Swift-Estuary-Pillar: +$6.7K on 4 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 75% (95% range 30%–95%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 4 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Oct 10 – Oct 28
- +$6.7K
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 27 | BUY Nets @ 47¢ | Spread: Celtics (-12.5) ↗ | $1.7K |
| Oct 27 | BUY Under
@ 45¢
Pistons vs. Knicks: O/U 218.5 |
Pistons vs. Knicks: O/U 218.5 | $2.0K |
| Oct 27 | BUY Over @ 50¢ | Nets vs. Celtics: O/U 222.5 ↗ | $1.9K |
| Oct 27 | BUY Celtics @ 50¢ | Spread: Celtics (-12.5) ↗ | $1.4K |
| Oct 27 | BUY Over @ 51¢ | Nets vs. Celtics: O/U 222.5 ↗ | $2.0K |
All 5 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.
The bigger picture: Does copying Polymarket whales pay? · Do Polymarket whales make money?