Cautious-Outlaw-Maggot
Skill vs luck
Cautious-Outlaw-Maggot on Polymarket: 1 settled bet · won 0% (95% range 0%–79%) · profit −$2. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned −11.2% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 24, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Cautious-Outlaw-Maggot: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0x7d16a5c40aca6c60d4c34b2f3ac43e62e66cd63c. Data CC BY 4.0.
Cautious-Outlaw-Maggot: −$2 on 1 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 0% (95% range 0%–79%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Oct 7 – Oct 24
- −$2
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 22 | SELL Galions @ 99.9¢ | LoL: Galions vs Solary (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs ↗ | $1.5K |
All 1 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.
The bigger picture: Does copying Polymarket whales pay? · Do Polymarket whales make money?