Demanding-Leeway
Skill vs luck
Demanding-Leeway on Polymarket: 11 settled bets · won 27% (95% range 10%–57%) · profit +$2.4K. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned −10.4% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 27, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Demanding-Leeway: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 27, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0x7bdcecdd3b1a9c964014ca710f569311777b136b. Data CC BY 4.0.
Demanding-Leeway: +$2.4K on 11 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 27% (95% range 10%–57%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 4 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Sep 23 – Oct 10
- +$932
- Oct 10 – Oct 27
- +$1.4K
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 26 | SELL Over
@ 99.9¢
CF Universidad de Chile vs. Everton de Viña del Mar: O/U 2.5 |
CF Universidad de Chile vs. Everton de Viña del Mar: O/U 2.5 | $1.3K |
| Oct 26 | SELL No
@ 99.9¢
Will FC Andorra win on 2026-10-26? |
Will FC Andorra win on 2026-10-26? | $1.4K |
| Oct 25 | BUY BetBoom Team @ 59¢ | Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Nemiga (BO3) - PGL Masters Bucharest Group Stage ↗ | $2.0K |
| Oct 24 | BUY Yes
@ 76¢
Will FC Augsburg win on 2026-10-24? |
Will FC Augsburg win on 2026-10-24? | $1.1K |
| Oct 24 | SELL Tara Wuerth
@ 99.9¢
W15 Bol: Tara Wuerth vs Viktoria Varga |
W15 Bol: Tara Wuerth vs Viktoria Varga | $3.7K |
| Oct 24 | SELL Tara Wuerth
@ 99.9¢
W15 Bol: Tara Wuerth vs Viktoria Varga |
W15 Bol: Tara Wuerth vs Viktoria Varga | $1.7K |
| Oct 22 | BUY PARIVISION
@ 61¢
Game Handicap: PARI (-1.5) vs Astra Invicta (+1.5) |
Game Handicap: PARI (-1.5) vs Astra Invicta (+1.5) | $1.8K |
| Oct 21 | SELL No
@ 99.9¢
Will Levante UD vs. Athletic Club end in a draw? |
Will Levante UD vs. Athletic Club end in a draw? | $1.3K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.
The bigger picture: Does copying Polymarket whales pay? · Do Polymarket whales make money?