Scholarly-Repeat
Skill vs luck
Scholarly-Repeat on Polymarket: 4 settled bets · won 25% (95% range 5%–70%) · profit −$513. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned −10.4% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 27, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Scholarly-Repeat: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 27, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0x79426d16027fd003fffd6b049e36e30fb9aeb60b. Data CC BY 4.0.
Scholarly-Repeat: −$513 on 4 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 25% (95% range 5%–70%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 2 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Aug 20 – Sep 6
- −$2.0K
- Oct 10 – Oct 27
- +$1.5K
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 25 | BUY Pistons @ 77¢ | Pistons vs. 76ers ↗ | $5.0K |
| Sep 4 | BUY Under
@ 51¢
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 11.5 |
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 11.5 | $2.0K |
| Sep 4 | SELL Tommy Paul @ 99.9¢ | US Open ATP: Alexander Bublik vs Tommy Paul ↗ | $3.6K |
| Aug 30 | SELL Atlanta Dream
@ 99.9¢
Minnesota Lynx vs. Atlanta Dream |
Minnesota Lynx vs. Atlanta Dream | $3.3K |
All 4 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.
The bigger picture: Does copying Polymarket whales pay? · Do Polymarket whales make money?