Astonishing-Topic
Skill vs luck
Astonishing-Topic on Polymarket: 7 settled bets · won 43% (95% range 16%–75%) · profit +$20. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned −8.9% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 25, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Astonishing-Topic: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 25, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0x7775607430dfac2ef402dc7e3aaad27febca3709. Data CC BY 4.0.
Astonishing-Topic: +$20 on 7 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 43% (95% range 16%–75%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 4 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Aug 20 – Sep 5
- −$3.1K
- Sep 5 – Sep 22
- +$1.7K
- Sep 22 – Oct 8
- +$1.4K
- Oct 8 – Oct 25
- −$3
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24 | SELL Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida @ 99.9¢ | Cali: Gustavo Heide vs Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida ↗ | $3.1K |
| Oct 1 | BUY Pedro Boscardin Dias
@ 58¢
Curitiba: Pedro Boscardin Dias vs Genaro Alberto Olivieri |
Curitiba: Pedro Boscardin Dias vs Genaro Alberto Olivieri | $1.9K |
| Sep 22 | SELL Matthew William Donald
@ 99.9¢
Genoa 2: Matthew William Donald vs Gianluca Cadenasso |
Genoa 2: Matthew William Donald vs Gianluca Cadenasso | $1.5K |
| Sep 21 | SELL Erik Arutiunian
@ 99.9¢
San Diego 2: Andrew Fenty vs Erik Arutiunian |
San Diego 2: Andrew Fenty vs Erik Arutiunian | $1.9K |
| Sep 13 | BUY Panna Udvardy
@ 54¢
Guadalajara Open Akron: Panna Udvardy vs Lois Boisson |
Guadalajara Open Akron: Panna Udvardy vs Lois Boisson | $2.0K |
| Sep 4 | BUY Karolina Muchova @ 51¢ | US Open WTA: Emma Navarro vs Karolina Muchova ↗ | $2.3K |
| Sep 4 | BUY Emma Navarro @ 80¢ | US Open WTA: Emma Navarro vs Karolina Muchova ↗ | $3.2K |
| Sep 4 | BUY Karolina Muchova @ 71¢ | US Open WTA: Emma Navarro vs Karolina Muchova ↗ | $1.6K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.
The bigger picture: Does copying Polymarket whales pay? · Do Polymarket whales make money?