Insubstantial-Organizing
0x74692bbae173bfe318cba2606e319a5685cca5f0
Insubstantial-Organizing: −$11K on 4 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 25% (95% range 5%–70%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Profit
−$11K
return −8.5%
Settled bets
4
$131K staked
Won
25.0%
95% range 5%–70%
Mostly bets on
other
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 4 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
Profit by period
- Sep 25 – Oct 13
- −$11K
Settled profit in each period since Aug 20 (14 days or a little longer; hover a bar for its dates). A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following
weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −9.6%
(2,332 positions).
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11 | BUY No
@ 52¢
Will 1. FC Köln win on 2026-10-11? |
Will 1. FC Köln win on 2026-10-11? | $31K |
| Oct 9 | BUY Islanders
@ 39¢
Lightning vs. Islanders |
Lightning vs. Islanders | $2.3K |
| Oct 4 | BUY No
@ 47¢
Will Germany win on 2026-10-04? |
Will Germany win on 2026-10-04? | $56K |
| Oct 4 | BUY Giants
@ 44¢
Cardinals vs. Giants |
Cardinals vs. Giants | $42K |
All 4 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.