Digital-Pamphlet
Skill vs luck
Digital-Pamphlet on Polymarket: 15 settled bets · won 20% (95% range 7%–45%) · profit −$4.0K. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned −6.5% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 20, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Digital-Pamphlet: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 20, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0x73d4c819f03d5f0a346d521ebc28002af611dbd6. Data CC BY 4.0.
Digital-Pamphlet: −$4.0K on 15 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 20% (95% range 7%–45%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 9 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Sep 4 – Sep 19
- −$2
- Oct 4 – Oct 20
- −$4.0K
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 19 | BUY Jaime Faria @ 64¢ | Lyon Open: Jaime Faria vs Felix Balshaw ↗ | $1.2K |
| Oct 19 | BUY Nicolai Budkov Kjaer
@ 47¢
Lyon Open, Qualification: Clement Tabur vs Nicolai Budkov Kjaer |
Lyon Open, Qualification: Clement Tabur vs Nicolai Budkov Kjaer | $1.3K |
| Oct 19 | SELL Nikoloz Basilashvili @ 99.9¢ | Almaty Open: Marin Cilic vs Nikoloz Basilashvili ↗ | $2.5K |
| Oct 19 | SELL James McCabe
@ 99¢
Guangzhou 2: James McCabe vs Elias Ymer |
Guangzhou 2: James McCabe vs Elias Ymer | $1.1K |
| Oct 18 | BUY Borna Gojo
@ 58¢
Lyon Open, Qualification: Francesco Maestrelli vs Borna Gojo |
Lyon Open, Qualification: Francesco Maestrelli vs Borna Gojo | $1.4K |
| Oct 18 | BUY Francesco Passaro
@ 43¢
Maia: Francesco Passaro vs Zsombor Piros |
Maia: Francesco Passaro vs Zsombor Piros | $1.5K |
| Oct 18 | BUY Alexander Shevchenko
@ 56¢
Almaty Open, Qualification: Alexander Shevchenko vs Stefanos Sakellaridis |
Almaty Open, Qualification: Alexander Shevchenko vs Stefanos Sakellaridis | $2.0K |
| Oct 18 | BUY Maxim Mrva
@ 57¢
Lyon Open, Qualification: Maxim Mrva vs Dusan Lajovic |
Lyon Open, Qualification: Maxim Mrva vs Dusan Lajovic | $1.5K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.
The bigger picture: Does copying Polymarket whales pay? · Do Polymarket whales make money?