Golden-Unemployment
Skill vs luck
Golden-Unemployment on Polymarket: 11 settled bets · won 91% (95% range 62%–98%) · profit +$4.1K. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned −11.2% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 24, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Golden-Unemployment: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0x736539924a5602b37a03a54fc12c1cc8f98964da. Data CC BY 4.0.
Golden-Unemployment: +$4.1K on 11 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 91% (95% range 62%–98%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 9 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Aug 20 – Sep 5
- +$2.3K
- Sep 5 – Sep 21
- +$1.3K
- Sep 21 – Oct 7
- +$249
- Oct 7 – Oct 24
- +$320
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 23 | SELL Yes @ 72¢ | Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026? ↗ | $2.8K |
| Oct 23 | SELL Yes
@ 23¢
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026? |
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026? | $1.4K |
| Oct 22 | BUY Yes
@ 83¢
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026? |
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026? | $6.2K |
| Oct 21 | SELL Yes
@ 75¢
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026? |
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026? | $1.2K |
| Oct 19 | SELL Yes
@ 80¢
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026? |
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026? | $2.4K |
| Oct 15 | BUY No
@ 87¢
Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 23, 2026? |
Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 23, 2026? | $1.8K |
| Oct 14 | BUY No
@ 98¢
Will the OpenAI spy be accused of working for Google by December 31? |
Will the OpenAI spy be accused of working for Google by December 31? | $1.8K |
| Oct 12 | SELL Yes
@ 78¢
Will there be no next Meta Muse Spark model release by October 31, 2026? |
Will there be no next Meta Muse Spark model release by October 31, 2026? | $1.0K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.
The bigger picture: Does copying Polymarket whales pay? · Do Polymarket whales make money?