Amusing-Towel
Skill vs luck
Amusing-Towel on Polymarket: 4 settled bets · won 75% (95% range 30%–95%) · profit +$275. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned −8.9% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 25, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Amusing-Towel: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 25, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0x73534402899084573c0f0ddc003674eba01cb6c5. Data CC BY 4.0.
Amusing-Towel: +$275 on 4 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 75% (95% range 30%–95%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 2 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Sep 5 – Sep 22
- +$8
- Oct 8 – Oct 25
- +$268
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 25 | SELL Bilibili Gaming @ 99.9¢ | LoL: Team Liquid vs Bilibili Gaming (BO1) - Worlds Group Stage ↗ | $8.6K |
| Oct 25 | BUY Bilibili Gaming @ 93¢ | LoL: Team Liquid vs Bilibili Gaming (BO1) - Worlds Group Stage ↗ | $2.0K |
| Oct 24 | BUY Movistar KOI @ 94¢ | LoL: CTBC Flying Oyster vs Movistar KOI (BO1) - Worlds Group Stage ↗ | $2.0K |
| Sep 20 | BUY Yes
@ 99.27¢
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 63°F or below on September 19? |
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 63°F or below on September 19? | $1.3K |
| Sep 5 | SELL No
@ 99.9¢
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 12°C on September 5? |
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 12°C on September 5? | $2.1K |
All 5 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.
The bigger picture: Does copying Polymarket whales pay? · Do Polymarket whales make money?