Hopeful-Subprime-Soliloquy
Skill vs luck
Hopeful-Subprime-Soliloquy on Polymarket: 7 settled bets · won 71% (95% range 36%–92%) · profit +$885. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned −10.4% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 27, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Hopeful-Subprime-Soliloquy: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 27, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0x71a5dcc8622450890f4fe3a35c3924b0b9d0970d. Data CC BY 4.0.
Hopeful-Subprime-Soliloquy: +$885 on 7 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 71% (95% range 36%–92%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 6 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Oct 10 – Oct 27
- +$885
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 25 | BUY Natus Vincere
@ 93¢
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Natus Vincere - Map 2 Winner |
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Natus Vincere - Map 2 Winner | $12K |
| Oct 25 | BUY FUT Esports @ 99¢ | Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs Liquid (BO3) - PGL Masters Bucharest Group Stage ↗ | $12K |
| Oct 24 | BUY FURIA
@ 94¢
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs DENDELE CS - Map 1 Winner |
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs DENDELE CS - Map 1 Winner | $12K |
| Oct 17 | BUY
@ 40¢
Counter-Strike: NIP vs MIBR (BO3) - Stake Pulse Beat III Playoffs AND Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - Thunderpick World Championship Playoffs |
Counter-Strike: NIP vs MIBR (BO3) - Stake Pulse Beat III Playoffs AND Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - Thunderpick World Championship Playoffs | $2.5K |
| Oct 17 | SELL MIBR
@ 99.9¢
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - Stake Pulse Beat III Playoffs |
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - Stake Pulse Beat III Playoffs | $1.0K |
| Oct 17 | BUY Heroic
@ 58¢
Counter-Strike: NIP vs Heroic (BO3) - Stake Pulse Beat III Playoffs |
Counter-Strike: NIP vs Heroic (BO3) - Stake Pulse Beat III Playoffs | $1.0K |
| Oct 12 | BUY Mia Pohankova
@ 93¢
Wuhan Tennis Open: Anna Bondar vs Mia Pohankova |
Wuhan Tennis Open: Anna Bondar vs Mia Pohankova | $1.6K |
| Oct 11 | BUY Alexander Zverev
@ 93¢
Shanghai Rolex Masters: Alexander Zverev vs Quentin Halys |
Shanghai Rolex Masters: Alexander Zverev vs Quentin Halys | $1.4K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.
The bigger picture: Does copying Polymarket whales pay? · Do Polymarket whales make money?