Grave-External-Background
Skill vs luck
Grave-External-Background on Polymarket: 2 settled bets · won 50% (95% range 10%–91%) · profit +$798. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned −11.5% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 21, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Grave-External-Background: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 21, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0x6d68e72b205cb1a64d7ecfc281b1df46ce5539a6. Data CC BY 4.0.
Grave-External-Background: +$798 on 2 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 50% (95% range 10%–91%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 1 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Oct 5 – Oct 21
- +$798
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 20 | BUY PARIVISION @ 60¢ | Counter-Strike: fnatic vs PARIVISION (BO3) - 1win Private Club Playoffs ↗ | $1.2K |
| Oct 20 | SELL PARIVISION
@ 99.9¢
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs PARIVISION - Map 2 Winner |
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs PARIVISION - Map 2 Winner | $1.6K |
All 2 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.
The bigger picture: Does copying Polymarket whales pay? · Do Polymarket whales make money?