Single-Morale-Mattress
Skill vs luck
Single-Morale-Mattress on Polymarket: 4 settled bets · won 0% (95% range 0%–49%) · profit −$7.6K. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned −10.4% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 27, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Single-Morale-Mattress: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 27, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0x6acc53b652be5105fe12e90abe825b24bcfe6a11. Data CC BY 4.0.
Single-Morale-Mattress: −$7.6K on 4 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 0% (95% range 0%–49%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 4 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Oct 10 – Oct 27
- −$7.6K
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 26 | BUY Pacers
@ 49¢
Spread: Pacers (-3.5) |
Spread: Pacers (-3.5) | $1.4K |
| Oct 26 | BUY Kings @ 49¢ | Spread: Grizzlies (-3.5) ↗ | $3.1K |
| Oct 24 | BUY Under
@ 49¢
Rockets vs. Hawks: O/U 226.5 |
Rockets vs. Hawks: O/U 226.5 | $1.8K |
| Oct 21 | BUY Lakers
@ 47¢
Spread: Lakers (-7.5) |
Spread: Lakers (-7.5) | $1.2K |
All 4 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.
The bigger picture: Does copying Polymarket whales pay? · Do Polymarket whales make money?