Frightening-Trowel
Skill vs luck
Frightening-Trowel on Polymarket: 23 settled bets · won 35% (95% range 19%–55%) · profit +$1.3K. Skill vs luck: can't be told from luck. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned −11.1% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 28, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Frightening-Trowel: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 28, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0x6157d529ae129fe08f22a27ed42e741d2eaa9fb4. Data CC BY 4.0.
Frightening-Trowel: +$1.3K on 23 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 35% (95% range 19%–55%). Skill or luck: indistinguishable from luck.
Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 18 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Aug 20 – Sep 6
- −$6
- Sep 6 – Sep 23
- −$2.3K
- Sep 23 – Oct 10
- +$12K
- Oct 10 – Oct 28
- −$8.2K
In the live feed
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 28 | BUY Over @ 50¢ | Trail Blazers vs. Lakers: O/U 233.5 ↗ | $15K |
| Oct 27 | BUY Over
@ 54¢
Delaware vs. Western Kentucky: O/U 67.5 |
Delaware vs. Western Kentucky: O/U 67.5 | $1.6K |
| Oct 25 | BUY Over
@ 56¢
Giants vs. Texans: O/U 48.5 |
Giants vs. Texans: O/U 48.5 | $5.8K |
| Oct 25 | BUY Yes
@ 64¢
Liverpool FC vs. Brighton & Hove Albion FC: Both Teams to Score |
Liverpool FC vs. Brighton & Hove Albion FC: Both Teams to Score | $8.5K |
| Oct 25 | BUY Yes
@ 55¢
FC Internazionale Milano vs. ACF Fiorentina: Both Teams to Score |
FC Internazionale Milano vs. ACF Fiorentina: Both Teams to Score | $3.0K |
| Oct 24 | BUY Over
@ 48¢
Ole Miss vs. Texas: O/U 55.5 |
Ole Miss vs. Texas: O/U 55.5 | $4.9K |
| Oct 22 | SELL Yes
@ 99.9¢
Juventus FC vs. Stade Rennais FC 1901: Both Teams to Score |
Juventus FC vs. Stade Rennais FC 1901: Both Teams to Score | $9.3K |
| Oct 22 | BUY Over
@ 56¢
Juventus FC vs. Stade Rennais FC 1901: Juventus FC O/U 2.5 |
Juventus FC vs. Stade Rennais FC 1901: Juventus FC O/U 2.5 | $3.0K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.
The bigger picture: Does copying Polymarket whales pay? · Do Polymarket whales make money?