Firm-Builder-Index
Skill vs luck
Firm-Builder-Index on Polymarket: 4 settled bets · won 75% (95% range 30%–95%) · profit +$2.3K. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned −8.9% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 25, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Firm-Builder-Index: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 25, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0x5dfac261e6e4bd8ce75847efe3d276445ce1de9c. Data CC BY 4.0.
Firm-Builder-Index: +$2.3K on 4 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 75% (95% range 30%–95%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 2 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Oct 8 – Oct 25
- +$2.3K
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24 | BUY Team Spirit @ 68¢ | Dota 2: Team Spirit vs BetBoom Team - Game 1 Winner ↗ | $1.4K |
| Oct 24 | BUY Vitality
@ 88¢
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z - Map 1 Winner |
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z - Map 1 Winner | $3.1K |
| Oct 24 | SELL Nemiga
@ 99.9¢
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs Nemiga - Map 1 Winner |
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs Nemiga - Map 1 Winner | $3.6K |
| Oct 24 | SELL Spirit @ 77¢ | Counter-Strike: Spirit vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - PGL Masters Bucharest Group Stage ↗ | $4.2K |
| Oct 24 | BUY Spirit @ 55¢ | Counter-Strike: Spirit vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - PGL Masters Bucharest Group Stage ↗ | $3.0K |
All 5 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.
The bigger picture: Does copying Polymarket whales pay? · Do Polymarket whales make money?