Sparse-Cookie
0x5a218c7ad04135830a45c41aaed7294df7809318
Sparse-Cookie: −$719 on 15 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 87% (95% range 62%–96%). Skill or luck: indistinguishable from luck.
Profit
−$719
return −2.0%
Settled bets
15
$36K staked
Won
86.7%
95% range 62%–96%
Mostly bets on
politics/macro
Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 15 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
Profit by period
- Sep 6 – Sep 24
- +$1.8K
- Sep 24 – Oct 12
- −$2.5K
Settled profit in each period since Aug 20 (14 days or a little longer; hover a bar for its dates). A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following
weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −10.9%
(2,374 positions).
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 9 | BUY No
@ 99.5¢
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by at least 12%? |
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by at least 12%? | $1.0K |
| Oct 8 | BUY Yes
@ 85¢
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? |
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | $1.7K |
| Oct 5 | BUY No
@ 99.8¢
Will Erika Kokay win the second-most votes in the 2026 Federal District Senate election? |
Will Erika Kokay win the second-most votes in the 2026 Federal District Senate election? | $1.8K |
| Oct 5 | BUY No
@ 99.8¢
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the second-most votes in the 2026 Federal District Senate election? |
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the second-most votes in the 2026 Federal District Senate election? | $2.0K |
| Oct 4 | BUY No
@ 97¢
Will Lula win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election? |
Will Lula win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election? | $1.4K |
| Oct 4 | BUY No
@ 70¢
Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election? |
Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election? | $1.3K |
| Oct 2 | BUY No
@ 76¢
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? |
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | $1.3K |
| Sep 22 | BUY Yes
@ 92¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026? |
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026? | $1.8K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.