Alarmed-Eyelids
Skill vs luck
Alarmed-Eyelids on Polymarket: 2 settled bets · won 50% (95% range 10%–91%) · profit +$732. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned −8.2% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 18, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Alarmed-Eyelids: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 18, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0x59587bd92720e6071c18e360fe8891364ce3d1dd. Data CC BY 4.0.
Alarmed-Eyelids: +$732 on 2 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 50% (95% range 10%–91%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Oct 3 – Oct 18
- +$732
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 17 | SELL Over @ 99.9¢ | Real Betis Balompié vs. FC Barcelona: O/U 3.5 ↗ | $1.9K |
| Oct 17 | BUY Over @ 61¢ | Real Betis Balompié vs. FC Barcelona: O/U 3.5 ↗ | $1.2K |
| Oct 4 | SELL Under
@ 99.9¢
Azerbaijan vs. Lithuania: O/U 1.5 |
Azerbaijan vs. Lithuania: O/U 1.5 | $1.2K |
All 3 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.
The bigger picture: Does copying Polymarket whales pay? · Do Polymarket whales make money?