Intrepid-Median
Skill vs luck
Intrepid-Median on Polymarket: 4 settled bets · won 50% (95% range 15%–85%) · profit +$12K. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned −10.4% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 27, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Intrepid-Median: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 27, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0x57b447b7f189ea76fbcb530a25328c93bf787589. Data CC BY 4.0.
Intrepid-Median: +$12K on 4 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 50% (95% range 15%–85%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 4 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Oct 10 – Oct 27
- +$12K
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 25 | BUY Yes @ 33¢ | Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-10-25? ↗ | $4.8K |
| Oct 22 | BUY Yes
@ 22¢
Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2026-10-22? |
Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2026-10-22? | $2.9K |
| Oct 17 | BUY Yes @ 30¢ | Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-10-17? ↗ | $3.4K |
| Oct 17 | BUY Yes
@ 18¢
Will Hull City AFC win on 2026-10-17? |
Will Hull City AFC win on 2026-10-17? | $2.9K |
All 4 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.
The bigger picture: Does copying Polymarket whales pay? · Do Polymarket whales make money?