Obvious-Misunderstand-Mattock
Skill vs luck
Obvious-Misunderstand-Mattock on Polymarket: 6 settled bets · won 33% (95% range 10%–70%) · profit +$1.5K. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned −10.4% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 27, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Obvious-Misunderstand-Mattock: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 27, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0x576d57683f81c30ae5f76523ccb91534382e1f40. Data CC BY 4.0.
Obvious-Misunderstand-Mattock: +$1.5K on 6 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 33% (95% range 10%–70%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 1 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Sep 23 – Oct 10
- +$452
- Oct 10 – Oct 27
- +$1.0K
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 26 | SELL Over
@ 99.9¢
CR Flamengo vs. CA Mineiro: CR Flamengo O/U 1.5 |
CR Flamengo vs. CA Mineiro: CR Flamengo O/U 1.5 | $1.4K |
| Oct 26 | SELL Lucia Bronzetti
@ 62¢
Curitiba: Luisina Giovannini vs Lucia Bronzetti |
Curitiba: Luisina Giovannini vs Lucia Bronzetti | $1.3K |
| Oct 25 | SELL Yes @ 87¢ | Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-10-25? ↗ | $1.9K |
| Oct 5 | SELL Carlos Alcaraz @ 99.8¢ | Japan Open Tennis Championships: Carlos Alcaraz vs Jaume Munar ↗ | $1.2K |
| Oct 3 | SELL Elise Mertens @ 93¢ | China Open: Katie Volynets vs Elise Mertens ↗ | $1.6K |
| Oct 1 | BUY Clement Chidekh
@ 66¢
Mouilleron-Le-Captif: Clement Chidekh vs Ugo Blanchet |
Mouilleron-Le-Captif: Clement Chidekh vs Ugo Blanchet | $1.1K |
All 6 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.
The bigger picture: Does copying Polymarket whales pay? · Do Polymarket whales make money?