Primary-Polenta
Skill vs luck
Primary-Polenta on Polymarket: 3 settled bets · won 33% (95% range 6%–79%) · profit −$158. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned −8.9% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 25, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Primary-Polenta: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 25, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0x568e8a64618c4aedb1f4d30048a413464aeb6980. Data CC BY 4.0.
Primary-Polenta: −$158 on 3 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 33% (95% range 6%–79%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 2 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Oct 8 – Oct 25
- −$158
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24 | BUY BetBoom Team @ 62¢ | Counter-Strike: Spirit vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - PGL Masters Bucharest Group Stage ↗ | $1.5K |
| Oct 24 | BUY Zero Tenacity
@ 61¢
Dota 2: Team Synapse vs Zero Tenacity - Game 1 Winner |
Dota 2: Team Synapse vs Zero Tenacity - Game 1 Winner | $1.0K |
| Oct 20 | SELL fnatic
@ 99.9¢
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs PARIVISION - Map 1 Winner |
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs PARIVISION - Map 1 Winner | $3.0K |
All 3 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.
The bigger picture: Does copying Polymarket whales pay? · Do Polymarket whales make money?