Pungent-Matrix
Skill vs luck
Pungent-Matrix on Polymarket: 17 settled bets · won 59% (95% range 36%–78%) · profit +$7.6K. Skill vs luck: can't be told from luck. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned −8.9% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 25, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Pungent-Matrix: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 25, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0x559b850620cd9ee1136d48484c1f374fc5d44959. Data CC BY 4.0.
Pungent-Matrix: +$7.6K on 17 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 59% (95% range 36%–78%). Skill or luck: indistinguishable from luck.
Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 17 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Aug 20 – Sep 5
- −$1.4K
- Sep 5 – Sep 22
- +$6.2K
- Sep 22 – Oct 8
- +$1.7K
- Oct 8 – Oct 25
- +$979
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 25 | BUY Suns @ 67¢ | Warriors vs. Suns ↗ | $2.0K |
| Oct 7 | BUY PARIVISION @ 38¢ | Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - ESL Pro League Group Stage ↗ | $1.5K |
| Oct 5 | BUY FlyQuest @ 43¢ | LoL: Natus Vincere vs FlyQuest - Game 2 Winner ↗ | $1.5K |
| Oct 3 | BUY Aurora Gaming
@ 69¢
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 2 Winner |
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 2 Winner | $4.8K |
| Oct 3 | BUY Aurora Gaming
@ 79¢
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 2 Winner |
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 2 Winner | $3.0K |
| Sep 30 | BUY BetBoom Team @ 54¢ | Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs OG (BO3) - BLAST Slam Group C ↗ | $1.4K |
| Sep 29 | BUY Natus Vincere
@ 46¢
Dota 2: 1win vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner |
Dota 2: 1win vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner | $2.5K |
| Sep 26 | BUY Xtreme Gaming @ 45¢ | Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs Xtreme Gaming - Game 1 Winner ↗ | $1.3K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.
The bigger picture: Does copying Polymarket whales pay? · Do Polymarket whales make money?