0x52d8da46bcc56e3d9f9b2099ad16904fb0b599ae
Skill vs luck
0x52d8da46bcc56e3d9f9b2099ad16904fb0b599ae on Polymarket: 19 settled bets · won 90% (95% range 69%–97%) · profit +$20K. Skill vs luck: better than luck, though 1 in 40 wallets do this by chance alone. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned −11.1% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 28, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “0x52d8da46bcc56e3d9f9b2099ad16904fb0b599ae: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 28, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0x52d8da46bcc56e3d9f9b2099ad16904fb0b599ae. Data CC BY 4.0.
0x52d8da46bcc56e3d9f9b2099ad16904fb0b599ae: +$20K on 19 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 90% (95% range 69%–97%). Skill or luck: beat the odds (1 in 40 wallets do this by luck alone).
Skill or luck? Beat the odds (1 in 40 wallets do this by luck alone). We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 17 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Aug 20 – Sep 6
- +$14K
- Sep 6 – Sep 23
- +$1.3K
- Sep 23 – Oct 10
- −$105
- Oct 10 – Oct 28
- +$4.4K
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 27 | BUY Yes @ 69¢ | Will AS Roma win on 2026-10-27? ↗ | $1.2K |
| Oct 26 | BUY Over
@ 62¢
Games Total: O/U 2.5 |
Games Total: O/U 2.5 | $3.9K |
| Oct 26 | BUY US Boulogne Côte dOpale
@ 98¢
Spread: Stade de Reims (-1.5) |
Spread: Stade de Reims (-1.5) | $3.1K |
| Oct 25 | BUY RC Celta de Vigo
@ 85¢
Spread: Real Betis Balompié (-1.5) |
Spread: Real Betis Balompié (-1.5) | $4.3K |
| Oct 25 | BUY Yes
@ 69¢
Will FC Midtjylland win on 2026-10-25? |
Will FC Midtjylland win on 2026-10-25? | $1.3K |
| Oct 25 | BUY Yes
@ 61¢
Will Celtic FC win on 2026-10-25? |
Will Celtic FC win on 2026-10-25? | $1.6K |
| Oct 24 | BUY Yes
@ 51¢
Will 1. FC Magdeburg win on 2026-10-24? |
Will 1. FC Magdeburg win on 2026-10-24? | $1.3K |
| Oct 22 | BUY SK Puntigamer Sturm Graz
@ 80¢
Spread: Olympique de Marseille (-1.5) |
Spread: Olympique de Marseille (-1.5) | $2.5K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.
The bigger picture: Does copying Polymarket whales pay? · Do Polymarket whales make money?