Reliable-Peanut-Shopping
Skill vs luck
Reliable-Peanut-Shopping on Polymarket: 5 settled bets · won 60% (95% range 23%–88%) · profit +$841. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned −11.5% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 21, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Reliable-Peanut-Shopping: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 21, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0x529279dda0372d07277456829f27c2151ec3fb5e. Data CC BY 4.0.
Reliable-Peanut-Shopping: +$841 on 5 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 60% (95% range 23%–88%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 3 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Sep 20 – Oct 5
- −$1.0K
- Oct 5 – Oct 21
- +$1.9K
In the live feed
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 12 | BUY Jazz
@ 53¢
Spurs vs. Jazz |
Spurs vs. Jazz | $1.5K |
| Oct 8 | SELL Cavaliers
@ 61¢
Celtics vs. Cavaliers |
Celtics vs. Cavaliers | $2.1K |
| Oct 7 | SELL Warriors
@ 67¢
Lakers vs. Warriors |
Lakers vs. Warriors | $4.0K |
| Oct 5 | BUY No
@ 79¢
Will Liechtenstein win on 2026-10-05? |
Will Liechtenstein win on 2026-10-05? | $1.6K |
| Oct 5 | BUY Knicks
@ 54¢
Knicks vs. 76ers |
Knicks vs. 76ers | $1.0K |
All 5 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.
The bigger picture: Does copying Polymarket whales pay? · Do Polymarket whales make money?