Free-Discipline-Enjoyment
Skill vs luck
Free-Discipline-Enjoyment on Polymarket: 8 settled bets · won 38% (95% range 14%–69%) · profit −$2.9K. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned −11.2% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 24, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Free-Discipline-Enjoyment: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0x4fce00b98eff0a329a8a6a98cc0b8c352ca7c46c. Data CC BY 4.0.
Free-Discipline-Enjoyment: −$2.9K on 8 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 38% (95% range 14%–69%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 5 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Oct 7 – Oct 24
- −$2.9K
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 23 | BUY Team Liquid
@ 82¢
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs GamerLegion (BO3) - PARI Universe Group A |
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs GamerLegion (BO3) - PARI Universe Group A | $1.2K |
| Oct 23 | BUY Iva Jovic
@ 87¢
Set 2 Winner: Iva Jovic vs Diana Shnaider |
Set 2 Winner: Iva Jovic vs Diana Shnaider | $1.3K |
| Oct 23 | SELL Katie Boulter @ 99.9¢ | Japan Women's Open: Katie Boulter vs Antonia Ruzic ↗ | $1.3K |
| Oct 23 | SELL Leylah Fernandez @ 99.9¢ | Ningbo Open: Leylah Fernandez vs Ekaterina Alexandrova ↗ | $1.2K |
| Oct 22 | BUY Eternal Fire
@ 65¢
Counter-Strike: Sinners vs Eternal Fire (BO3) - DraculaN Playoffs |
Counter-Strike: Sinners vs Eternal Fire (BO3) - DraculaN Playoffs | $1.1K |
| Oct 22 | SELL BC.Game Esports
@ 53¢
Counter-Strike: BC.Game Esports vs FaZe (BO3) - DraculaN Playoffs |
Counter-Strike: BC.Game Esports vs FaZe (BO3) - DraculaN Playoffs | $1.5K |
| Oct 20 | BUY Tallon Griekspoor
@ 92¢
European Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Max Schoenhaus |
European Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Max Schoenhaus | $2.9K |
| Oct 20 | BUY Sho Shimabukuro
@ 86¢
Almaty Open: Sho Shimabukuro vs Roman Safiullin |
Almaty Open: Sho Shimabukuro vs Roman Safiullin | $2.0K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.
The bigger picture: Does copying Polymarket whales pay? · Do Polymarket whales make money?