Guilty-Jail
0x4f4d87a7402edf6b8c95f797e6c94ba2ceefebde
Guilty-Jail: −$4.3K on 25 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 84% (95% range 65%–94%). Skill or luck: indistinguishable from luck.
Profit
−$4.3K
return −7.9%
Settled bets
25
$55K staked
Won
84.0%
95% range 65%–94%
Mostly bets on
other
Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 22 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
Profit by period
- Aug 20 – Sep 7
- −$4.4K
- Sep 7 – Sep 25
- +$39
- Sep 25 – Oct 14
- +$40
Settled profit in each period since Aug 20 (14 days or a little longer; hover a bar for its dates). A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following
weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −9.7%
(2,280 positions).
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 13 | SELL Yes
@ 99.9¢
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-10-13? |
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-10-13? | $4.7K |
| Oct 8 | BUY Yes
@ 97¢
Will Shamrock Rovers win on 2026-10-08? |
Will Shamrock Rovers win on 2026-10-08? | $1.5K |
| Sep 14 | BUY Yes
@ 99.5¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on September 14? |
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on September 14? | $2.8K |
| Sep 12 | BUY Yes
@ 99.5¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on September 12? |
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on September 12? | $2.3K |
| Sep 11 | SELL No
@ 99.8¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on September 11? |
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on September 11? | $2.6K |
| Sep 8 | BUY No
@ 99.9¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on September 8? |
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on September 8? | $2.5K |
| Sep 7 | BUY No
@ 99.2¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on September 7? |
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on September 7? | $2.0K |
| Sep 6 | SELL Yes
@ 99.8¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on September 6? |
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on September 6? | $2.9K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.