Happy-Go-Lucky-Shelf
Skill vs luck
Happy-Go-Lucky-Shelf on Polymarket: 1 settled bet · won 100% (95% range 21%–100%) · profit +$2.9K. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned −8.9% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 25, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Happy-Go-Lucky-Shelf: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 25, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0x4db09dba2b4885a46df66cee1c47f72635e5d3ea. Data CC BY 4.0.
Happy-Go-Lucky-Shelf: +$2.9K on 1 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 100% (95% range 21%–100%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 1 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Oct 8 – Oct 25
- +$2.9K
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 22 | BUY Loneer Kavanagh @ 51¢ | UFC 333: Ramazan Temirov vs. Lone'er Kavanagh (Flyweight, Main Card) ↗ | $3.0K |
All 1 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.
The bigger picture: Does copying Polymarket whales pay? · Do Polymarket whales make money?