Vapid-Autumn-Behavior
Skill vs luck
Vapid-Autumn-Behavior on Polymarket: 1 settled bet · won 0% (95% range 0%–79%) · profit −$1.7K. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned −8.9% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 25, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Vapid-Autumn-Behavior: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 25, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0x4d94fd35c0d5088bd9af2bc7f38b26849259919f. Data CC BY 4.0.
Vapid-Autumn-Behavior: −$1.7K on 1 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 0% (95% range 0%–79%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 1 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Oct 8 – Oct 25
- −$1.7K
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24 | BUY G2 @ 46¢ | Counter-Strike: G2 vs Natus Vincere - Map 1 Winner ↗ | $1.7K |
All 1 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.
The bigger picture: Does copying Polymarket whales pay? · Do Polymarket whales make money?