Deafening-Spread
Skill vs luck
Deafening-Spread on Polymarket: 16 settled bets · won 63% (95% range 39%–82%) · profit +$2.8K. Skill vs luck: can't be told from luck. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned −8.9% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 25, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Deafening-Spread: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 25, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0x489d3df3601288940f89d56b5642b0951129f6e3. Data CC BY 4.0.
Deafening-Spread: +$2.8K on 16 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 63% (95% range 39%–82%). Skill or luck: indistinguishable from luck.
Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 12 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Aug 20 – Sep 5
- +$953
- Sep 5 – Sep 22
- +$300
- Sep 22 – Oct 8
- −$1.3K
- Oct 8 – Oct 25
- +$2.8K
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24 | BUY Yes @ 83¢ | Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-10-24? ↗ | $4.2K |
| Oct 22 | BUY Yes
@ 71¢
Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol win on 2026-10-22? |
Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol win on 2026-10-22? | $1.7K |
| Oct 22 | BUY Yes
@ 66¢
Will Olympiakós SFP win on 2026-10-22? |
Will Olympiakós SFP win on 2026-10-22? | $1.1K |
| Oct 10 | SELL Rafael Jodar
@ 99.9¢
Shanghai Rolex Masters: Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Rafael Jodar |
Shanghai Rolex Masters: Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Rafael Jodar | $4.3K |
| Oct 10 | BUY Utah State
@ 92¢
Washington State vs. Utah State |
Washington State vs. Utah State | $8.0K |
| Oct 7 | BUY Elise Mertens @ 89¢ | China Open: Coco Gauff vs Elise Mertens ↗ | $3.0K |
| Oct 6 | BUY Karolina Muchova
@ 65¢
China Open: Karolina Muchova vs Naomi Osaka |
China Open: Karolina Muchova vs Naomi Osaka | $1.3K |
| Oct 5 | BUY Iga Swiatek @ 83¢ | China Open: Donna Vekic vs Iga Swiatek ↗ | $4.7K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.
The bigger picture: Does copying Polymarket whales pay? · Do Polymarket whales make money?