0x4821…d6cf
Skill vs luck
0x4821…d6cf on Polymarket: 2 settled bets · won 0% (95% range 0%–66%) · profit −$4.5K. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned −10.4% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 27, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “0x4821…d6cf: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 27, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0x482133a2c5c8ab43ab4c51d0c729724e246cd6cf. Data CC BY 4.0.
0x4821…d6cf: −$4.5K on 2 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 0% (95% range 0%–66%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 1 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Oct 10 – Oct 27
- −$4.5K
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 26 | BUY Cavaliers
@ 78¢
Timberwolves vs. Cavaliers: Race to 10 Points |
Timberwolves vs. Cavaliers: Race to 10 Points | $4.5K |
| Oct 26 | SELL Team Liquid @ 99.9¢ | LoL: Team Liquid vs Anyone's Legend (BO3) - Worlds Group Stage ↗ | $4.6K |
All 2 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.
The bigger picture: Does copying Polymarket whales pay? · Do Polymarket whales make money?