Sharp-Play-Characteristic
Skill vs luck
Sharp-Play-Characteristic on Polymarket: 22 settled bets · won 50% (95% range 31%–69%) · profit −$1.6K. Skill vs luck: can't be told from luck. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned −10.5% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 23, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Sharp-Play-Characteristic: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 23, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0x46809a7ed4c862761865194b2e71e56d6af57d3d. Data CC BY 4.0.
Sharp-Play-Characteristic: −$1.6K on 22 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 50% (95% range 31%–69%). Skill or luck: indistinguishable from luck.
Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 22 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Sep 5 – Sep 21
- +$2.3K
- Sep 21 – Oct 7
- −$4.9K
- Oct 7 – Oct 23
- +$980
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 23 | BUY Timberwolves
@ 50¢
Spread: Timberwolves (-1.5) |
Spread: Timberwolves (-1.5) | $1.4K |
| Oct 21 | BUY Jazz
@ 49¢
Spread: Grizzlies (-1.5) |
Spread: Grizzlies (-1.5) | $2.0K |
| Oct 21 | BUY Pacers @ 49¢ | Spread: Pacers (-3.5) ↗ | $1.9K |
| Oct 21 | BUY Under
@ 57¢
Júbilo Iwata vs. Ōita Trinita: O/U 2.5 |
Júbilo Iwata vs. Ōita Trinita: O/U 2.5 | $1.0K |
| Oct 17 | BUY Gençlerbirliği SK
@ 50¢
Spread: Galatasaray SK (-1.5) |
Spread: Galatasaray SK (-1.5) | $1.9K |
| Oct 17 | BUY Under
@ 53¢
Amed Sportif vs. Konyaspor: O/U 2.5 |
Amed Sportif vs. Konyaspor: O/U 2.5 | $1.3K |
| Oct 10 | BUY Melbourne United
@ 49¢
Spread: Melbourne United (-3.5) |
Spread: Melbourne United (-3.5) | $1.0K |
| Oct 9 | BUY Under
@ 43¢
Seinajoen JK vs. FC Lahti: O/U 2.5 |
Seinajoen JK vs. FC Lahti: O/U 2.5 | $1.0K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.
The bigger picture: Does copying Polymarket whales pay? · Do Polymarket whales make money?