Mealy-Gift

0x433f62d1f91768a0877171eee70e172f0bf7a0dc

Skill vs luck

Mealy-Gift on Polymarket: 42 settled bets · won 79% (95% range 64%–88%) · profit −$10K. Skill vs luck: can't be told from luck. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned −10.4% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 27, 2026.

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Cite: Hopium Games, “Mealy-Gift: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 27, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0x433f62d1f91768a0877171eee70e172f0bf7a0dc. Data CC BY 4.0.

Polymarket

Can't tell from luck Check it on Polymarket ↗

Mealy-Gift: −$10K on 42 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 79% (95% range 64%–88%). Skill or luck: indistinguishable from luck.

Profit

−$10K

return −8.2%

Settled bets

$126K staked

Won

78.6%

95% range 64%–88%

Mostly bets on

crypto

Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 41 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.

Profit by period

Aug 20 – Sep 6: −$612
Sep 6 – Sep 23: −$5.4K
Sep 23 – Oct 10: +$2.9K
Oct 10 – Oct 27: −$7.2K

Settled profit in each period since Aug 20 (14 days or a little longer; hover a bar for its dates). A dashed slot had no settled bets.

Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −10.4% (2,295 positions).

Latest captured bets

When	Bet	Market	Size
Oct 26	BUY Pistons @ 99.87¢ Pistons vs. 76ers	Pistons vs. 76ers ↗	$11K
Oct 25	BUY Up @ 47¢ Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET	$7.5K
Oct 24	BUY Up @ 97¢ Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET	$2.4K
Oct 24	BUY Up @ 97¢ Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET	$4.8K
Oct 24	BUY Down @ 99¢ Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET	$1.3K
Oct 9	BUY Up @ 90¢ Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET	$4.6K
Oct 9	BUY Up @ 90¢ Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET	$1.6K
Oct 4	BUY Up @ 69¢ Bitcoin Up or Down - October 3, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 3, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET	$1.5K

Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.

The bigger picture: Does copying Polymarket whales pay? · Do Polymarket whales make money?

About this data · run 1793084411, computed 2026-10-27 07:00 UTC

Source: hopium_compute run 1793084411 (PG metrics_*)

Poly: only >=$1k trades captured -> per-wallet PnL partial
Limitless: price/contracts only since 2026-09-05
latest window has the most unresolved markets
Limitless wash/value-transfer trades excluded (see wash); Poly off-book is report-only
fair value covers Limitless crypto markets only (Binance); stocks have no reference feed