Awkward-Sentence

0x42b7122f6a4635ee76d254eddf752ab27cf077dc

Skill vs luck

Awkward-Sentence on Polymarket: 5 settled bets · won 40% (95% range 12%–77%) · profit +$795. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned −11.2% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 24, 2026.

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Cite: Hopium Games, “Awkward-Sentence: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0x42b7122f6a4635ee76d254eddf752ab27cf077dc. Data CC BY 4.0.

Polymarket

Too few bets Check it on Polymarket ↗

Awkward-Sentence: +$795 on 5 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 40% (95% range 12%–77%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.

Profit

+$795

return +24.4%

Settled bets

$3.3K staked

Won

40.0%

95% range 12%–77%

Mostly bets on

esports

Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 3 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.

Profit by period

Sep 21 – Oct 7: −$2
Oct 7 – Oct 24: +$797

Settled profit in each period since Aug 20 (14 days or a little longer; hover a bar for its dates). A dashed slot had no settled bets.

Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −11.2% (2,187 positions).

Latest captured bets

When	Bet	Market	Size
Oct 22	BUY Team Liquid @ 54¢ Dota 2: Team Liquid vs 1win - Game 2 Winner	Dota 2: Team Liquid vs 1win - Game 2 Winner ↗	$1.2K
Oct 17	SELL Gorgc Team @ 99.9¢ Dota 2: ALOHADANCE Team vs Gorgc Team (BO3) - 1win Streamers League #3 Playoffs	Dota 2: ALOHADANCE Team vs Gorgc Team (BO3) - 1win Streamers League #3 Playoffs	$2.1K
Oct 11	BUY Team Spirit @ 56¢ Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Team Spirit - Game 3 Winner	Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Team Spirit - Game 3 Winner ↗	$1.0K
Oct 11	BUY Team Yandex @ 57¢ Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Team Spirit - Game 2 Winner	Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Team Spirit - Game 2 Winner ↗	$1.1K
Oct 9	BUY @ 59¢ Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Aurora (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs AND Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Vitality (BO3) - ESL Pro League Playoffs	Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Aurora (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs AND Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Vitality (BO3) - ESL Pro League Playoffs	$1.2K
Sep 24	SELL Daxak Team @ 99.9¢ Dota 2: Daxak Team vs gpk Team (BO3) - BetBoom Streamers Battle Group A	Dota 2: Daxak Team vs gpk Team (BO3) - BetBoom Streamers Battle Group A	$1.7K

All 6 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.

The bigger picture: Does copying Polymarket whales pay? · Do Polymarket whales make money?

About this data · run 1792825211, computed 2026-10-24 07:00 UTC

Source: hopium_compute run 1792825211 (PG metrics_*)

Poly: only >=$1k trades captured -> per-wallet PnL partial
Limitless: price/contracts only since 2026-09-05
latest window has the most unresolved markets
Limitless wash/value-transfer trades excluded (see wash); Poly off-book is report-only
fair value covers Limitless crypto markets only (Binance); stocks have no reference feed