Belated-Admission
Skill vs luck
Belated-Admission on Polymarket: 2 settled bets · won 50% (95% range 10%–91%) · profit −$1.3K. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned −8.9% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 25, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Belated-Admission: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 25, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0x3bc6ceda183782673e5265775483e59871a666d3. Data CC BY 4.0.
Belated-Admission: −$1.3K on 2 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 50% (95% range 10%–91%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 2 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Oct 8 – Oct 25
- −$1.3K
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24 | BUY Mavericks @ 96¢ | Mavericks vs. Pacers ↗ | $1.5K |
| Oct 21 | BUY Thunder @ 89¢ | Thunder vs. Spurs ↗ | $1.5K |
All 2 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.
The bigger picture: Does copying Polymarket whales pay? · Do Polymarket whales make money?