0x3a8a…c016
Skill vs luck
0x3a8a…c016 on Polymarket: 13 settled bets · won 15% (95% range 4%–42%) · profit −$7.8K. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned −11.1% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 28, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “0x3a8a…c016: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 28, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0x3a8a7125d5681065484886d0189aa6721773c016. Data CC BY 4.0.
0x3a8a…c016: −$7.8K on 13 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 15% (95% range 4%–42%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 6 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Sep 23 – Oct 10
- +$1.0K
- Oct 10 – Oct 28
- −$8.8K
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 28 | BUY Maya Joint
@ 47¢
Pan Pacific Open: Cristina Bucsa vs Maya Joint |
Pan Pacific Open: Cristina Bucsa vs Maya Joint | $1.5K |
| Oct 28 | BUY Milwaukee Brewers @ 50¢ | Milwaukee Brewers vs. Tampa Bay Rays ↗ | $1.5K |
| Oct 27 | BUY Celtics
@ 51¢
Spread: Celtics (-13.5) |
Spread: Celtics (-13.5) | $1.2K |
| Oct 27 | SELL Juan Manuel La Serna
@ 65¢
Guayaquil: Nick Hardt vs Juan Manuel La Serna |
Guayaquil: Nick Hardt vs Juan Manuel La Serna | $1.5K |
| Oct 26 | BUY Chiefs
@ 47¢
Spread: Seahawks (-2.5) |
Spread: Seahawks (-2.5) | $2.4K |
| Oct 24 | BUY NC State
@ 49¢
NC State vs. Stanford |
NC State vs. Stanford | $2.0K |
| Oct 24 | SELL Lakers
@ 85¢
Spread: Lakers (-3.5) |
Spread: Lakers (-3.5) | $1.4K |
| Oct 24 | BUY Spurs
@ 50¢
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) |
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) | $1.3K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.
The bigger picture: Does copying Polymarket whales pay? · Do Polymarket whales make money?