0x39de…7a1d
Skill vs luck
0x39de…7a1d on Polymarket: 4 settled bets · won 50% (95% range 15%–85%) · profit +$494. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned −10.4% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 27, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “0x39de…7a1d: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 27, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0x39dec86bf03744359f839071cdd9a7d1adce7a1d. Data CC BY 4.0.
0x39de…7a1d: +$494 on 4 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 50% (95% range 15%–85%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 3 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Sep 6 – Sep 23
- −$5
- Sep 23 – Oct 10
- −$684
- Oct 10 – Oct 27
- +$1.2K
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 25 | BUY Semen Pankin @ 82¢ | Ningbo: Semen Pankin vs Maxim Zhukov ↗ | $3.5K |
| Oct 25 | BUY Semen Pankin @ 78¢ | Ningbo: Semen Pankin vs Maxim Zhukov ↗ | $1.5K |
| Oct 8 | BUY Mariano Navone
@ 54¢
Shanghai Rolex Masters: Mariano Navone vs Pablo Carreno Busta |
Shanghai Rolex Masters: Mariano Navone vs Pablo Carreno Busta | $1.5K |
| Oct 6 | BUY Yanaki Milev @ 65¢ | Palermo: Ivan Gakhov vs Yanaki Milev ↗ | $1.5K |
| Sep 9 | SELL Grigory Shebekin
@ 99.9¢
M15 Tsaghkadzor: Grigory Shebekin vs Artur Kukasian |
M15 Tsaghkadzor: Grigory Shebekin vs Artur Kukasian | $4.8K |
All 5 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.
The bigger picture: Does copying Polymarket whales pay? · Do Polymarket whales make money?