Legal-Butcher
Skill vs luck
Legal-Butcher on Polymarket: 4 settled bets · won 50% (95% range 15%–85%) · profit −$19. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned −8.9% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 25, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Legal-Butcher: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 25, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0x398900e95487c704ac3b52fd653e1697d32227b1. Data CC BY 4.0.
Legal-Butcher: −$19 on 4 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 50% (95% range 15%–85%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 2 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Aug 20 – Sep 5
- −$1.9K
- Sep 5 – Sep 22
- +$982
- Oct 8 – Oct 25
- +$850
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24 | SELL Alexander Volkov @ 99.9¢ | UFC 333: Alexander Volkov vs. Rizvan Kuniev (Heavyweight, Main Card) ↗ | $1.9K |
| Oct 24 | BUY Alexander Volkov @ 55¢ | UFC 333: Alexander Volkov vs. Rizvan Kuniev (Heavyweight, Main Card) ↗ | $1.0K |
| Oct 11 | BUY Yes @ 52¢ | Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? ↗ | $1.2K |
| Sep 10 | BUY Yes @ 51¢ | Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's US Open? ↗ | $1.0K |
| Aug 26 | BUY No
@ 58¢
Will Carnell Tate have 4.5+ receiving touchdowns in the 2026-27 NFL regular season? |
Will Carnell Tate have 4.5+ receiving touchdowns in the 2026-27 NFL regular season? | $1.2K |
All 5 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.
The bigger picture: Does copying Polymarket whales pay? · Do Polymarket whales make money?