Obvious-Mastoid

0x36d0089d4ff0101805d3068b462b59332b3774c0

Skill vs luck

Obvious-Mastoid on Polymarket: 1 settled bet · won 100% (95% range 21%–100%) · profit +$12. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned −10.5% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 23, 2026.

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Cite: Hopium Games, “Obvious-Mastoid: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 23, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0x36d0089d4ff0101805d3068b462b59332b3774c0. Data CC BY 4.0.

Polymarket

Too few bets Check it on Polymarket ↗

Obvious-Mastoid: +$12 on 1 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 100% (95% range 21%–100%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.

Profit
+$12
return +0.1%
Settled bets
1
$12K staked
Won
100.0%
95% range 21%–100%
Mostly bets on
sports

Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 1 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.

Profit by period
Oct 7 – Oct 23
+$12
Settled profit in each period since Aug 20 (14 days or a little longer; hover a bar for its dates). A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −10.5% (1,973 positions).

Latest captured bets

WhenBetMarketSize
Oct 22 BUY Clippers @ 99.9¢
Kings vs. Clippers
 Kings vs. Clippers ↗ $12K

All 1 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.

The bigger picture: Does copying Polymarket whales pay? · Do Polymarket whales make money?

About this data · run 1792738826, computed 2026-10-23 07:00 UTC
Source: hopium_compute run 1792738826 (PG metrics_*)
  • Poly: only >=$1k trades captured -> per-wallet PnL partial
  • Limitless: price/contracts only since 2026-09-05
  • latest window has the most unresolved markets
  • Limitless wash/value-transfer trades excluded (see wash); Poly off-book is report-only
  • fair value covers Limitless crypto markets only (Binance); stocks have no reference feed