Essential-Typhoon-Lye
Skill vs luck
Essential-Typhoon-Lye on Polymarket: 4 settled bets · won 100% (95% range 51%–100%) · profit +$1.0K. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned −8.9% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 25, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Essential-Typhoon-Lye: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 25, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0x36b3e949b625558f482fd0b5f6dc6de99c86a92a. Data CC BY 4.0.
Essential-Typhoon-Lye: +$1.0K on 4 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 100% (95% range 51%–100%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 4 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Oct 8 – Oct 25
- +$1.0K
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24 | BUY Team Yandex @ 83¢ | Dota 2: Team Yandex vs OG - Game 2 Winner ↗ | $2.0K |
| Oct 24 | BUY Team Yandex @ 82¢ | Dota 2: Team Yandex vs OG - Game 2 Winner ↗ | $2.0K |
| Oct 24 | BUY Team Yandex @ 99¢ | Dota 2: Team Yandex vs OG - Game 1 Winner ↗ | $1.4K |
| Oct 23 | BUY Nemiga Gaming
@ 97¢
Dota 2: salamit vs Nemiga Gaming - Game 2 Winner |
Dota 2: salamit vs Nemiga Gaming - Game 2 Winner | $1.9K |
| Oct 23 | BUY Nemiga Gaming
@ 96¢
Dota 2: salamit vs Nemiga Gaming - Game 2 Winner |
Dota 2: salamit vs Nemiga Gaming - Game 2 Winner | $1.9K |
| Oct 20 | BUY Dawn Bulls
@ 99¢
Dota 2: TheBot$ vs Dawn Bulls (BO3) - EPL Masters Group B |
Dota 2: TheBot$ vs Dawn Bulls (BO3) - EPL Masters Group B | $1.5K |
All 6 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.
The bigger picture: Does copying Polymarket whales pay? · Do Polymarket whales make money?