Back-Justification
Skill vs luck
Back-Justification on Polymarket: 9 settled bets · won 33% (95% range 12%–65%) · profit −$9.0K. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned −11.1% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 28, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Back-Justification: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 28, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0x3449dd397d165206791e12ef8187d31696234030. Data CC BY 4.0.
Back-Justification: −$9.0K on 9 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 33% (95% range 12%–65%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 8 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Aug 20 – Sep 6
- −$3.4K
- Sep 6 – Sep 23
- −$238
- Sep 23 – Oct 10
- −$3.6K
- Oct 10 – Oct 28
- −$1.7K
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 28 | BUY Over @ 49¢ | Trail Blazers vs. Lakers: O/U 233.5 ↗ | $2.4K |
| Oct 23 | BUY Over
@ 50¢
Nuggets vs. Thunder: O/U 236.5 |
Nuggets vs. Thunder: O/U 236.5 | $2.0K |
| Oct 14 | BUY Pelicans
@ 46¢
Spread: Pelicans (-4.5) |
Spread: Pelicans (-4.5) | $2.2K |
| Oct 8 | SELL Celtics
@ 32¢
Celtics vs. Cavaliers |
Celtics vs. Cavaliers | $1.8K |
| Sep 25 | BUY Team Nemesis @ 53¢ | Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 Winner ↗ | $1.3K |
| Sep 25 | BUY Dplus KIA Challengers @ 79¢ | LoL: Cupid Esports vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO1) - World Star Challengers Invitational Group C ↗ | $1.0K |
| Sep 20 | BUY Vitality @ 68¢ | Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FURIA (BO3) - StarLadder StarSeries Playoffs ↗ | $1.7K |
| Sep 12 | BUY Invictus Gaming @ 51¢ | LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Invictus Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs ↗ | $1.0K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.
The bigger picture: Does copying Polymarket whales pay? · Do Polymarket whales make money?