Bowed-Claim-Bondsman
Skill vs luck
Bowed-Claim-Bondsman on Polymarket: 2 settled bets · won 50% (95% range 10%–91%) · profit −$1.2K. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned −11.1% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 28, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Bowed-Claim-Bondsman: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 28, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0x333f291ea158f13e4f60c9f0ba88044bf2483cd6. Data CC BY 4.0.
Bowed-Claim-Bondsman: −$1.2K on 2 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 50% (95% range 10%–91%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 2 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Sep 6 – Sep 23
- −$1.3K
- Oct 10 – Oct 28
- +$117
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 27 | BUY FURIA @ 90¢ | Counter-Strike: FURIA vs TYLOO (BO3) - PGL Masters Bucharest Group Stage ↗ | $1.1K |
| Sep 15 | BUY Over
@ 57¢
Elche CF vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 9.5 Total Corners |
Elche CF vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 9.5 Total Corners | $1.3K |
All 2 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.
The bigger picture: Does copying Polymarket whales pay? · Do Polymarket whales make money?