Mortified-Miracle-Wax

0x32055cfcbcfcd9339df067891918d3a041233467

Polymarket

Can't tell from luck Check it on Polymarket ↗

Mortified-Miracle-Wax: +$2.8K on 12 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 75% (95% range 47%–91%). Skill or luck: indistinguishable from luck.

Profit
+$2.8K
return +6.6%
Settled bets
12
$42K staked
Won
75.0%
95% range 47%–91%
Mostly bets on
sports

Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 10 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.

Profit by period
Sep 7 – Sep 25
+$226
Sep 25 – Oct 13
+$2.5K
Settled profit in each period since Aug 20 (14 days or a little longer; hover a bar for its dates). A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −9.6% (2,332 positions).

Latest captured bets

WhenBetMarketSize
Oct 11 BUY Vikings @ 83¢
Vikings vs. Saints
Vikings vs. Saints $9.8K
Oct 11 BUY Down @ 97¢
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET $1.6K
Oct 11 BUY Up @ 99¢
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET $7.1K
Oct 11 BUY Up @ 98¢
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET $1.3K
Oct 11 BUY Yes @ 88¢
Will US Sassuolo Calcio vs. AC Milan end in a draw?
Will US Sassuolo Calcio vs. AC Milan end in a draw? $1.7K
Oct 11 BUY Yes @ 85¢
Will US Sassuolo Calcio vs. AC Milan end in a draw?
Will US Sassuolo Calcio vs. AC Milan end in a draw? $5.9K
Oct 11 BUY Yes @ 79¢
Will AC Milan win on 2026-10-11?
Will AC Milan win on 2026-10-11? $2.6K
Oct 11 SELL Yes @ 99¢
Will SC Freiburg win on 2026-10-11?
Will SC Freiburg win on 2026-10-11? $2.6K

Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.

About this data · run 1791874803, computed 2026-10-13 07:00 UTC
Source: hopium_compute run 1791874803 (PG metrics_*)
  • Poly: only >=$1k trades captured -> per-wallet PnL partial
  • Limitless: price/contracts only since 2026-09-05
  • latest window has the most unresolved markets
  • Limitless wash/value-transfer trades excluded (see wash); Poly off-book is report-only
  • fair value covers Limitless crypto markets only (Binance); stocks have no reference feed