Intentional-Bicycle
Skill vs luck
Intentional-Bicycle on Polymarket: 5 settled bets · won 40% (95% range 12%–77%) · profit +$11K. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned −10.4% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 27, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Intentional-Bicycle: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 27, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0x31a1a31f4c031e35f88762df68b626b2e6be1227. Data CC BY 4.0.
Intentional-Bicycle: +$11K on 5 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 40% (95% range 12%–77%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 1 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Oct 10 – Oct 27
- +$11K
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 27 | SELL Up
@ 59¢
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET |
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET | $1.1K |
| Oct 27 | SELL Milwaukee Brewers
@ 99.9¢
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) |
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) | $14K |
| Oct 26 | BUY Milwaukee Brewers
@ 35¢
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) |
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) | $5.0K |
| Oct 26 | SELL Pacers @ 99.9¢ | Pacers vs. Nets ↗ | $17K |
| Oct 25 | BUY Dplus KIA @ 79¢ | LoL: Dplus KIA vs Movistar KOI (BO3) - Worlds Group Stage ↗ | $11K |
| Oct 25 | SELL Flames
@ 99.9¢
Red Wings vs. Flames |
Red Wings vs. Flames | $8.6K |
All 6 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.
The bigger picture: Does copying Polymarket whales pay? · Do Polymarket whales make money?