Direct-Exocrine

0x314e8896c8c82ea0d514c3d42851ae0e8fb1af4e

Polymarket

Can't tell from luck Check it on Polymarket ↗

Direct-Exocrine: −$1.3K on 16 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 94% (95% range 72%–99%). Skill or luck: indistinguishable from luck.

Profit
−$1.3K
return −2.5%
Settled bets
16
$51K staked
Won
93.8%
95% range 72%–99%
Mostly bets on
other

Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 16 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.

Profit by period
Aug 20 – Sep 7
+$1
Sep 7 – Sep 25
+$224
Sep 25 – Oct 13
−$1.5K
Settled profit in each period since Aug 20 (14 days or a little longer; hover a bar for its dates). A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −9.6% (2,332 positions).

Latest captured bets

WhenBetMarketSize
Oct 11 BUY Pakistan @ 99.9¢
Sri Lanka Tour of Pakistan T20s: Pakistan vs Sri Lanka
Sri Lanka Tour of Pakistan T20s: Pakistan vs Sri Lanka $3.3K
Oct 11 BUY Pakistan @ 99.9¢
Sri Lanka Tour of Pakistan T20s: Pakistan vs Sri Lanka
Sri Lanka Tour of Pakistan T20s: Pakistan vs Sri Lanka $11K
Oct 9 BUY Oman @ 99.9¢
Cricket World Cup League 2: Oman vs Canada
Cricket World Cup League 2: Oman vs Canada $1.2K
Oct 6 BUY Kia Tigers @ 86¢
KBO: Kia Tigers vs. NC Dinos
KBO: Kia Tigers vs. NC Dinos $1.4K
Oct 6 BUY No @ 91¢
World Championship of Legends: Pakistan Champions vs West Indies Champions - Most Sixes Pakistan Champions Winner
World Championship of Legends: Pakistan Champions vs West Indies Champions - Most Sixes Pakistan Champions Winner $1.8K
Oct 6 BUY Stack CC B @ 98¢
KCC T20 Summer League: Salwa Boys vs Stack CC B
KCC T20 Summer League: Salwa Boys vs Stack CC B $2.0K
Oct 4 BUY Titans @ 99¢
T20 Series South Africa, Women: Titans vs Dolphins
T20 Series South Africa, Women: Titans vs Dolphins $3.4K
Oct 3 BUY Sri Lanka @ 99.9¢
Asian Games Men: Bangladesh vs Sri Lanka
Asian Games Men: Bangladesh vs Sri Lanka $4.3K

Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.

About this data · run 1791874803, computed 2026-10-13 07:00 UTC
Source: hopium_compute run 1791874803 (PG metrics_*)
  • Poly: only >=$1k trades captured -> per-wallet PnL partial
  • Limitless: price/contracts only since 2026-09-05
  • latest window has the most unresolved markets
  • Limitless wash/value-transfer trades excluded (see wash); Poly off-book is report-only
  • fair value covers Limitless crypto markets only (Binance); stocks have no reference feed