Cheery-Science
Skill vs luck
Cheery-Science on Polymarket: 4 settled bets · won 25% (95% range 5%–70%) · profit −$3.4K. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned −8.2% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 18, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Cheery-Science: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 18, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0x3089e1a6e3e9122c328aebe47b86ff5e13b292f6. Data CC BY 4.0.
Cheery-Science: −$3.4K on 4 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 25% (95% range 5%–70%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 3 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Aug 20 – Sep 3
- −$1.5K
- Sep 3 – Sep 18
- −$1.8K
- Oct 3 – Oct 18
- −$60
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16 | SELL Yes @ 98¢ | Katie Zacharia out as Press Secretary by October 31? ↗ | $2.9K |
| Sep 13 | BUY No
@ 97¢
Will “The Daily Show” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding variety series? |
Will “The Daily Show” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding variety series? | $1.5K |
| Sep 5 | BUY No
@ 46¢
Will Gen.G Esports win the LCK 2026 season playoffs? |
Will Gen.G Esports win the LCK 2026 season playoffs? | $1.8K |
| Aug 30 | BUY Yes @ 53¢ | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? ↗ | $1.5K |
All 4 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.
The bigger picture: Does copying Polymarket whales pay? · Do Polymarket whales make money?