Flickering-Net
Skill vs luck
Flickering-Net on Polymarket: 7 settled bets · won 43% (95% range 16%–75%) · profit −$843. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned −10.4% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 27, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Flickering-Net: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 27, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0x2effafa93cc4e0d6d5fb1cb1c309e4fa722a5e83. Data CC BY 4.0.
Flickering-Net: −$843 on 7 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 43% (95% range 16%–75%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 6 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Sep 23 – Oct 10
- +$843
- Oct 10 – Oct 27
- −$1.7K
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 25 | BUY BetBoom Team @ 64¢ | Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Nemiga - Map 2 Winner ↗ | $1.3K |
| Oct 24 | BUY Georgia Tech
@ 73¢
Boston College vs. Georgia Tech |
Boston College vs. Georgia Tech | $2.0K |
| Oct 24 | BUY Atlanta Dream
@ 56¢
Golden State Valkyries vs. Atlanta Dream |
Golden State Valkyries vs. Atlanta Dream | $1.0K |
| Oct 23 | BUY No
@ 81¢
Will Torino FC vs. AC Monza end in a draw? |
Will Torino FC vs. AC Monza end in a draw? | $2.5K |
| Oct 4 | SELL No
@ 62¢
Will Haiti win on 2026-10-04? |
Will Haiti win on 2026-10-04? | $1.5K |
| Sep 27 | BUY India
@ 74¢
Asian Games Men: India vs Afghanistan |
Asian Games Men: India vs Afghanistan | $1.0K |
| Sep 27 | BUY Over
@ 53¢
Ravens vs. Cowboys: O/U 64.5 |
Ravens vs. Cowboys: O/U 64.5 | $3.6K |
| Sep 23 | BUY fnatic
@ 61¢
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs Phantom (BO3) - Stake Pulse Beat II Group C |
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs Phantom (BO3) - Stake Pulse Beat II Group C | $1.5K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.
The bigger picture: Does copying Polymarket whales pay? · Do Polymarket whales make money?