Perfumed-Understatement

0x2c4cf6161ac648ce1e99bbf70945a111998face7

Polymarket

Can't tell from luck Check it on Polymarket ↗

Perfumed-Understatement: +$5.2K on 20 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 100% (95% range 84%–100%). Skill or luck: indistinguishable from luck.

Profit
+$5.2K
return +15.7%
Settled bets
20
$33K staked
Won
100.0%
95% range 84%–100%
Mostly bets on
crypto

Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 19 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.

Profit by period
Aug 20 – Sep 3
+$274
Sep 3 – Sep 17
+$36
Oct 1 – Oct 15
+$4.9K
Settled profit in each period since Aug 20 (14 days or a little longer; hover a bar for its dates). A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −4.5% (2,043 positions).

Latest captured bets

WhenBetMarketSize
Oct 14 SELL BNK FEARX @ 99.9¢
LoL: BNK FEARX vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner
LoL: BNK FEARX vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner $4.3K
Oct 14 BUY BNK FEARX @ 48¢
LoL: BNK FEARX vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner
LoL: BNK FEARX vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner $2.0K
Oct 7 BUY G2 NORD @ 84¢
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs G2 NORD (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs G2 NORD (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs $1.0K
Oct 3 BUY LYON @ 56¢
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON - Game 3 Winner
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON - Game 3 Winner $3.2K
Sep 10 BUY No @ 98¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on September 11?
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on September 11? $1.4K
Sep 7 BUY No @ 99.5¢
Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 August 31-September 6?
Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 August 31-September 6? $1.5K
Sep 1 BUY Down @ 99¢
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 1, 2PM ET
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 1, 2PM ET $2.0K
Aug 24 BUY Up @ 99¢
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 24, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 24, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET $1.4K

Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.

About this data · run 1792047640, computed 2026-10-15 07:00 UTC
Source: hopium_compute run 1792047640 (PG metrics_*)
  • Poly: only >=$1k trades captured -> per-wallet PnL partial
  • Limitless: price/contracts only since 2026-09-05
  • latest window has the most unresolved markets
  • Limitless wash/value-transfer trades excluded (see wash); Poly off-book is report-only
  • fair value covers Limitless crypto markets only (Binance); stocks have no reference feed