Weekly-Mat

0x29705e5c09678a97e54e03282b8ee5b4bbabe1c9

Polymarket

Can't tell from luck Check it on Polymarket ↗

Weekly-Mat: −$2.8K on 19 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 53% (95% range 32%–73%). Skill or luck: indistinguishable from luck.

Profit
−$2.8K
return −14.0%
Settled bets
19
$20K staked
Won
52.6%
95% range 32%–73%
Mostly bets on
other

Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 19 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.

Profit by period
Aug 20 – Sep 7
+$95
Sep 7 – Sep 25
−$3.0K
Sep 25 – Oct 14
+$106
Settled profit in each period since Aug 20 (14 days or a little longer; hover a bar for its dates). A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −9.7% (2,280 positions).

Latest captured bets

WhenBetMarketSize
Oct 12 BUY No @ 85¢
Will Venezia FC win on 2026-10-12?
Will Venezia FC win on 2026-10-12? $1.0K
Oct 12 BUY No @ 91¢
Will Halmstads BK win on 2026-10-12?
Will Halmstads BK win on 2026-10-12? $1.0K
Oct 12 BUY No @ 92¢
Will Club Brugge KV win on 2026-10-13?
Will Club Brugge KV win on 2026-10-13? $1.0K
Oct 12 BUY Yes @ 80¢
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-10-13?
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-10-13? $1.0K
Oct 11 BUY Over @ 93¢
Grasshopper Club Zurich vs. Young Boys Bern: O/U 1.5
Grasshopper Club Zurich vs. Young Boys Bern: O/U 1.5 $1.0K
Oct 9 BUY Yes @ 78¢
Will Galatasaray SK win on 2026-10-09?
Will Galatasaray SK win on 2026-10-09? $1.0K
Oct 9 BUY No @ 89¢
Will SV Werder Bremen win on 2026-10-09?
Will SV Werder Bremen win on 2026-10-09? $1.0K
Oct 9 BUY Yes @ 91¢
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-10-10?
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-10-10? $1.0K

Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.

About this data · run 1791961222, computed 2026-10-14 07:00 UTC
Source: hopium_compute run 1791961222 (PG metrics_*)
  • Poly: only >=$1k trades captured -> per-wallet PnL partial
  • Limitless: price/contracts only since 2026-09-05
  • latest window has the most unresolved markets
  • Limitless wash/value-transfer trades excluded (see wash); Poly off-book is report-only
  • fair value covers Limitless crypto markets only (Binance); stocks have no reference feed